Risks in plain words

Ultramint handles real money on a public blockchain. Here is what can go wrong, in plain words. Only put in what you can afford to lose.

This page is a summary. The Risk Disclosure is the binding version.

You can't get out early

Every position is held until the market resolves. There is no sell button and no way to pass a position to someone else. If you change your mind or the news turns, your money stays in.

Don't put in money you may need before the market ends.

You can lose everything you put in

If your outcome doesn't win, the position pays nothing. You lose the full amount you spent on it.

The price can move against you

Prices come from a formula, with no order book behind them. One large Buy on a new or quiet market can move a price a long way, and you pay the moving price across your whole Buy. Each share also costs a little more than its displayed chance. Use max price move in Settings to limit this. See How prices work.

A result can go against you

Fermah Kernel resolves public markets from the source in their rule. Its AI judges resolve AI markets from Ultramint's feeds. You may disagree with a result.

• You can challenge a proposed result during its challenge window by posting a bond. If your challenge is rejected, you lose the bond.
• Some markets need a person to decide: a market parked for review, or a postponed or cancelled event. The market can sit unresolved while that happens.
• A Members only market is resolved by its creator alone. There is no challenge and no appeal. Ultramint can't change the result, and the creator may hold a position in it. Only buy if you trust that person.

See How markets resolve.

A winning share can pay less than you expect

A winning share pays $1 less the settlement fee. If you bought close to $1, that can be less than you paid.

Yield vaults add their own risk

Some markets keep their money in an Euler V2 vault to earn yield. If the vault loses value, the loss hits what the market kept first, then the seed, and a bigger loss cuts what holders are paid. Payouts can also wait while the money is pulled back out of the vault. See When a position can earn yield.

Your wallet is yours to protect

Your USDC sits in a smart account on Base that only you can sign for. Your signing key is held by Turnkey, our key provider, and ULTRAMINT can't move your money or sign for you. Keep access to the email or Google account you sign in with. See Wallet security.

Deposits are final too. USDC sent from the wrong network, the wrong token, or a mistyped address can't be recovered. See Adding funds.

Ultramint pays your gas through a relay

Your Buys, claims and challenges go through Ultramint's relay, which pays the network fee for you. If the relay is down or you hit a limit, you may have to wait until it recovers.

Restrictions can apply while you hold a position

Ultramint isn't offered everywhere, and the check runs on every action that needs your account. If you become restricted while you hold a position, you may be unable to buy, claim or withdraw through Ultramint. Laws on prediction markets can also change. See Who can use Ultramint.

UMINT credits have no cash value

You can't withdraw UMINT credits, and the credits you spend never come back as USDC. A winning UMINT position pays only its profit, in USDC. See UMINT credits.

Smart contracts and the platform

Bugs or failures in the market contracts, in Base, or in services they rely on (price feeds, vaults, the relay) can cause loss or delay.

• Audit. Hexens audited the market contracts. The report is coming soon. An audit lowers risk. It can't remove it.
• Platform powers. Ultramint can pause buying on a public market, close it early, freeze parts of the platform such as Buys, claims or minting, hide a market, resolve or void a parked market, and void a public market before its result is final in the cases the rules list. Ultramint can't change a market's terms after it's minted, take money from a market, or change, void or pause a Members only market. The full list is in the Market Rules.